Federal Reserve Policy Forecast
Most Likely Decision: Hold
Static snapshot generated from the local Fed Rate Decision Engine. This page updates when any tracked dashboard value changes, not only when probabilities change.
Last prediction: May 8, 2026 8:59 PM CT | Static fingerprint: b38c36a6681b
Raise
2.0%
Probability at next FOMC meeting
Hold
96.0%
Probability at next FOMC meeting
Lower
2.0%
Probability at next FOMC meeting
Market Consensus Check
Sources: Investing.com Fed Rate Monitor, Oddpool Fed Rate Monitor. Consensus is the average of 2 available sources.
| Outcome | Engine | Market | Engine vs Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raise | 2.0% | 0.7% | +1.3 pts |
| Hold | 96.0% | 94.3% | +1.7 pts |
| Lower | 2.0% | 5.0% | -3.0 pts |
Source Details
| Source | Raise | Hold | Lower | Fetched |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Investing.com Fed Rate Monitor | 0.0% | 93.6% | 6.4% | May 8, 2026 9:33 PM CT |
| Oddpool Fed Rate Monitor | 1.5% | 95.0% | 3.5% | May 8, 2026 9:33 PM CT |
Top Reasons
- Inflation is elevated but not extreme, which supports a hold-heavy outcome.
Meeting Context
Next FOMCJune 16-17, 2026
Model ModeRULES_ONLY
Target Range3.50% to 3.75%
Days Until40
Key Inputs
Core CPI YoY2.6%
CPI YoY3.3%
Unemployment4.3%
Payroll Change115k
Wage Growth YoY3.6%
Fed Tone 45d0.0
2Y Treasury3.9%
10Y Treasury4.4%
Data Counts
Economic Observations57067
Fed Communications18
FOMC Meetings364
Labeled Decisions351
ML Snapshots351
Predictions19
ML Gate Status
StatusREJECTED_BASELINE_NOT_BEATEN
ModeRULES_ONLY
Training Snapshots351
ML Accuracy55.2%
Rules Accuracy70.1%
Promotion GateML stays off until it beats the rules baseline on directional accuracy and is not worse on probability calibration.
Prediction History
| Time | Meeting | Lead | Raise | Hold | Lower | Mode |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 8:59 PM CT | June 16-17, 2026 | Hold | 2.0% | 96.0% | 2.0% | RULES_ONLY |
| May 8, 2026 8:57 PM CT | June 16-17, 2026 | Hold | 2.0% | 96.0% | 2.0% | RULES_ONLY |
| May 8, 2026 8:51 PM CT | June 16-17, 2026 | Hold | 2.0% | 96.0% | 2.0% | RULES_ONLY |
| May 8, 2026 8:38 PM CT | June 16-17, 2026 | Hold | 2.0% | 96.0% | 2.0% | RULES_ONLY |
| May 8, 2026 8:37 PM CT | June 16-17, 2026 | Hold | 2.0% | 96.0% | 2.0% | RULES_ONLY |
| May 8, 2026 8:36 PM CT | June 16-17, 2026 | Hold | 2.0% | 96.0% | 2.0% | ML |
| May 8, 2026 5:03 PM CT | June 16-17, 2026 | Hold | 2.0% | 96.0% | 2.0% | ML |
| May 8, 2026 5:03 PM CT | June 16-17, 2026 | Hold | 2.0% | 96.0% | 2.0% | ML |
| May 8, 2026 5:02 PM CT | June 16-17, 2026 | Hold | 1.9% | 96.2% | 1.9% | ML |
| May 8, 2026 5:00 PM CT | June 16-17, 2026 | Hold | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | ML |
| May 8, 2026 4:59 PM CT | June 16-17, 2026 | Hold | 2.0% | 96.0% | 2.0% | RULES_ONLY |
| May 8, 2026 4:55 PM CT | June 16-17, 2026 | Hold | 2.0% | 96.0% | 2.0% | RULES_ONLY |
| May 8, 2026 4:47 PM CT | June 16-17, 2026 | Hold | 2.0% | 96.0% | 2.0% | RULES_ONLY |
| May 8, 2026 4:45 PM CT | June 16-17, 2026 | Hold | 2.0% | 96.0% | 2.0% | RULES_ONLY |
| May 8, 2026 4:44 PM CT | June 16-17, 2026 | Hold | 2.0% | 96.0% | 2.0% | RULES_ONLY |
| May 8, 2026 4:44 PM CT | June 16-17, 2026 | Hold | 2.0% | 96.0% | 2.0% | RULES_ONLY |
| May 8, 2026 4:28 PM CT | June 16-17, 2026 | Hold | 2.0% | 96.0% | 2.0% | RULES_ONLY |
| May 8, 2026 4:28 PM CT | June 16-17, 2026 | Hold | 2.0% | 96.0% | 2.0% | RULES_ONLY |
| May 8, 2026 4:27 PM CT | July 28-29, 2026 | Hold | 2.0% | 96.0% | 2.0% | RULES_ONLY |
Open Data Quality Notes
| Time | Dataset | Issue | Details |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 8:58 PM CT | bls | fetch_failed | {"dataset":"bls","error":"BLS request failed: ['Request could not be serviced, as the daily threshold for total number of requests allocated to the user with re |
| May 8, 2026 8:56 PM CT | bls | fetch_failed | {"dataset":"bls","error":"BLS request failed: ['Request could not be serviced, as the daily threshold for total number of requests allocated to the user with re |